Understanding Chaos

J. Duane Farmer

We live in an increasingly complex era, where accelerating technology and global interconnectedness are more promising—and more dangerous—than any era in human history. The fossil fuels that fueled global wealth creation now threaten to destroy the world they helped build. Automation and digitization promise prosperity for some, unemployment for others. Financial crises fuel growing inequality, polarization, and the decline of democracy. At their core, all of these problems are rooted in economics, yet the guidance provided by economic models often fails.

Many books have been written about Duane Farmer and his work, but "Understanding Chaos" is the first to express it in his own words. It offers a manifesto for how to improve the economy. In a story of science and ideas, Farmer combines his deep knowledge and experience with stories from his life to explain how we can bring about a scientific revolution that will impact the economic dilemmas facing society.

Using big data and supercomputers, we are now able for the first time to apply the science of complex systems to economic activity and build realistic models of the global economy. The resulting simulations and the emergent behavior we observe form the cornerstone of complexity economics, allowing us to test ideas and make far better economic predictions—to better address the world's challenging problems.